Should You Buy Now or Wait?
Originally appeared in Bay Area News Group publications on December 5 and 7, 2008 under the title, Great time to buy – fact or fiction?
Doing some MLS research, I substantiated my sense of the current market in Oakland. The statistics backed up what I have been saying to my clients — soft prices combined with attractive interest rates add up to a special buying opportunity. In fact, it is the best time to buy in our area in over 10 years. As I always tell my clients, never assume anything. Real estate runs in cycles and each one, although it seems long-lasting at the time, is always temporary.
Looking back
This is the third, prolonged buyer’s market in my 29 years in the business. In the first slow market, during the early to mid-80s, and in the second, early to mid-90s, prices were soft. Sellers suffered and buyers were in control. A similar pattern is presently being repeated, although the current foreclosure mess eclipses anything we have ever seen.
These downturns were followed by an increased number of sales and a steady acceleration in prices. Those who bought when others would not were happy. Many subsequently realized the opportunity they had missed.
Today’s market
Multiple Listing Service (MLS) statistics for single family homes in Oakland demonstrate why buying in this market is compelling. In 2006, the median sales price in zip code 94602 (includes Dimond, Glenview, Laurel, Lincoln Hts, Oakmore), was $648,000, with 315 closings. In 2007, the median sales price was $645,000, but the number of sales declined to 231. This year, through November 30th, the median sales price was $557,500 with 217 closings.
Looking at 94619 (includes Crestmont, Hillcrest Estates, Maxwell Park, Redwood Heights), the 2006 median sales price was $575,000 and 291 closed. For 2007, corresponding figures were $560,000 and 197. In 2008, the median sales price was $480,000, with 171 sold. Bear in mind that numerous Oakland zip codes contain homes with wide price ranges, some selling for over $3,000,000.
Holding their own
As a general rule, the most appealing properties in neighborhoods viewed as highly desirable have not been as adversely affected as those in lower priced areas with a high percentage of foreclosures. As an example, 94618, (covers Claremont Pines, Rockridge and Upper Rockridge), had a median sales price of $859,000 in 2006 and $929,600 in 2008. There were 100 closings in 2006 vs. 117 in 2008.
This is an illustration of the great influence location has on price. It also points out that you must be careful to clearly understand past history and current trends in various neighborhoods. These data show an area that is not only maintaining its value, but likely to see loftier prices when the market normalizes.
Interest rates
This past week, conforming interest rates (for a loan up to $417,000 in CA) dropped to the 5.5 per cent range, not far from our lowest rates ever. If you are planning to purchase a home to live in for a long time, this combination of attractive rates and prices is one to take seriously.
Many observers believe that, at some point, our country’s enormous debt will lead to higher interest rates. Just as with prices, the day will come, and probably sooner than you think, when these rates will be much higher.
Negotiating encouraged
As a buyer, you now have the chance to negotiate about many things, e.g., price, terms, condition, closing cost credits. During the past seller’s market, buyers sometimes accepted serious problems with the property, such as large termite reports or expensive foundation/drainage issues. In effect, they paid a premium price and then added to that the cost (and aggravation of handling) of repairs. From the seller’s perspective, it was, basically, “take it or leave it.”
Some are finding out now, when they go to sell, that they did not give enough weight to the home’s condition.
A footnote about foreclosures
Year-to-date, per MLS statistics, there have been 1904 single family homes sold in Oakland. Of those, 686, or 36 per cent, were bank-related – either short sales or REOs (real estate owned by a bank) More eye-opening, however, is the fact that 12.7 per cent (103 of 813) of homes in the five most popular zip codes were distressed sales vs. 53.4 per cent (583 of 1091) in the rest of the city.
Final Thoughts
If you are thinking about buying a home, it makes sense for you to be out there, actively looking and visiting open houses right now. In many cases, it takes time, possibly months or a year or more, to locate a winner. This cannot happen unless you are seriously searching.
You are in control. Once you read about the changing market or see it on TV, you will have missed the boat. As a professional, I cannot substantiate a significant change in the market without looking back at least six months. How will you know the bottom? It will likely have passed you by before you realize it.
Houses in this area are a limited commodity. The population continues to grow, but there is not much room for additional building in the Oakland/Berkeley area. This means that, although market cycles cause price fluctuations, over the long term, a house in a solid location is an excellent investment. Looking to buy now makes a lot of sense. That is a fact.
Related Articles:
Condition is Critical
Condition: What Your Agent Should Tell You
On Foreclosures, Short Sales and REOs