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Why Expireds Expire
by Don Dunning, ABR, CRB, CRS
DRE Lic. #00768985
Originally appeared in Hills Publications, November 10, 1995

Both sellers and buyers need to know how to recognize the characteristics of a real seller. If you are, or planning to become, a seller, you will need information and concepts to help you end up with a successful sale. As a buyer, you will want to understand what to look for and what to ask to ascertain if the house you are interested in is really for sale, or if you are just spinning your wheels.

True or False: Sellers who put their home on the market have definitely decided to sell? The answer is "False." Choosing a real estate agent, listing the property in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), placing a "For Sale" sign in front of the home, printing flyers which are displayed on the coffee table, having open houses and advertising in the newspaper are only parts of the process. Experienced, professional Realtors know that their existence does not guarantee you are dealing with a committed seller.

A seller is someone who has made a conscious decision to sell now; has a strong reason and need to sell; understands the realities of the marketplace; and will accept a contract with a price within that reality. I see many listings where the person selling does not seem to meet these criteria.

Recently, 1 did a survey of MLS residential listings in four popular local zip codes for the past year. Out of a total of 1774 residential properties, 680, or 38%, had not sold or were no longer for sale. Even taking into consideration that a percentage of these listings are repeats, e.g., a home which has been listed, expired, then relisted, we are still faced with an astonishingly large number of expireds and withdrawns — homes which never sold.

From my experience, a substantial portion of these homeowners were "testing the waters." They wanted to see if they could get a certain amount for the property, usually a figure set by what they "need." Buyers, nevertheless, do not make offers based this. 

Other sellers may have determined their asking price by what the property cost them when they bought. What they may not realize is that there is no relationship between what they paid and its present market value. In many cases, the minimum acceptable offer to a seller is the loan amount plus closing costs. Unfortunately, for a large number of residences purchased in the past five to six years, the market value of the property is equal to or less than the loan amount. In some instances, the seller bought years ago and had abundant equity. During the refi-mania of the early 1990's, however, he refinanced for more than the property is now worth. This is a key factor in the softness of the current market. People who want to sell cannot do so without coming out of pocket to pay their lender the difference between the net proceeds and the amount of the loan. Few people can, or choose to, do this.

This is a difficult time to be a seller. Despite periodic headlines trumpeting that the real estate market has turned around, the hard, statistical truth is that 1994's sales were poor in most of the Bay Area; 1995 has been worse. Houses that are selling are those which the market, i.e., buyers and their agents, perceive to have an asking price within reasonable range of their market value. A maximum cushion of 3% in the asking price seems to be most effective.

Pricing is the major factor in whether a house sells or expires. There are some other secondary, but important, reasons why expireds expire which effect the saleabilty of a home. Sellers too often do not consider them adequately in deciding on the list price.

  • The location is considered marginal or undesirable by agents and their buyers.

  • The property is unattractive outside — what agents call "not a drive-by."

  • It does not show well inside. This can include everything from a nonfunctional floor plan, to lack of charm, to unattractive furnishings, to too much clutter. Sometimes this is a result of ill-advised renovations, such as replacing some of the wood sash windows with aluminum in an otherwise traditional home. These changes may be efficient and cost-effective, but may also be a deterrent to most buyers.

  • The property has been customized in a way that is not appealing or useful to a majority of buyers. For example, a garage converted to a family room or bedroom is a detriment if there is no other off street, covered parking.

  • The area is not a problem, but homes near the property are unattractive or poorly maintained.

  • The house is adjacent to or across from a school or a busy, public park. Both may entail noise and safety concerns.

  • The dwelling is situated on a busy, main street near a freeway or close to a commercial area.

  • It emanates strong odors (usually not noticed by the inhabitants) from animals or smoking.

  • It is a dark house, again frequently not noticed by the occupants.

  • There is little or no outside living, i.e., a nice backyard or deck. Conversely, a front or backyard which is either dry and barren or overgrown with weeds repels many buyers.

  • The property is surrounded by other buildings which impede privacy.

  • The structure has been poorly maintained and is a "fixer-upper." These properties can sell quickly, but only if priced accurately for their condition and location.

    A significant error some sellers make is starting with the wrong mind-set. This is evidenced in questions and statements such as: "Can't we try it at a higher price?" often followed by, "just for a few weeks? We can always come down. Bring us an offer and we'll have something to talk about." And, then there is the all-time classic: "We're not going to give our house away." These are the words of expired sellers in-the-making.

    The number one reason why expireds expire is that the seller does not have a strong enough motivation to sell. He or she is not committed to the process. It is apparent in an initial asking price which is too high and a seller who is slow in adjusting the price to the actualities of the market. It is not priced competitively with properties in the same category in terms of location, size, condition, quality, features, schools, and convenience to shops and transportation. When a property of this type does not sell, the situation is often seen by a seller as a deficiency on the part of the agent, when, in fact, the only deficiency was taking the overpriced listing in the first place.

    Preparing a home for sale and going through the marketing process is generally a stressful, time consuming experience. Much time and aggravation can be saved if you do nor resist how the market really works. I agree with the expression "Hoping is the language of the poor." Hope will not get you a higher price for your home than the market is prepared to give. Consider yourself a seller only if you accept this as the truth.

    Related Articles: Understanding the Market

  • Don Dunning has been a full-time, licensed real estate agent since 1979 and a broker since 1982 and is past president of the Oakland Association of Realtors. He provides sales and hourly listing or consulting services with Wells & Bennett Realtors in Oakland and is an expert witness in real estate matters. Call him at (510) 485-7239, or e-mail him at , to put his knowledge and experience to work for you.

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